This article appeared in the January 1999 issue of PCT magazine.
Although predicting the weather is an inexact science, it doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of people willing to try. Here’s what some of the "experts" are saying PCOs can expect in the coming year. Only time will tell if their predictions are on the money or all wet.
Last year’s El Nino has made some people think they’re weather experts. We’ve been blaming everything from more rain to hotter temperatures on this phenomenon. El Nino, a weather event that can occur every two to seven years, is a change in the ocean-atmosphere system in the eastern Pacific which contributes to significant weather changes around the world, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). So what can we expect the year after El Nino?
Sometimes, but not always, the weather pattern La Nina follows an El Nino season. And according to the NOAA, "In many locations, especially in the tropics, La Nina (or cold episodes) produces the opposite climate variations from El Nino."
The Weather Channel (TWC) also reports that the La Nina weather pattern often follows a different path than El Nino. "Another feature typical of La Nina winters is a high degree of intraseasonal variability — unlike the El Nino-influenced winter of 1997-98," they report.
The NOAA expects cooler than normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest throughout the winter. Temperatures are also expected to be cooler than normal across the Great Lakes and Northeast into spring. "Drier than normal conditions will persist in west Texas, New Mexico and Arizona through August and into October," NOAA reports. "The late fall and early winter forecasts indicate continued dry conditions throughout much of the southern United States and into portions of the Midwest."
"There is a high confidence level that this winter will bring with it dramatic differences from last winter," TWC predicts. And what that means for PCOs remains to be seen.
1999 PREDICTIONS.
Since 1792, the Old Farmer’s Almanac has annually predicted astronomical events, tides, weather and other phenomena. And although some may scoff at these predictions, the publication’s accuracy rate throughout the years has been 80%. The predictions of the Old Farmer’s Almanac are based largely on cycles of the sun and moon, with a few other variables mixed in. The Old Farmer’s Almanac is the only institution in the United States making day-to-day, nationwide forecasts 18 months ahead of time.Because the weather is important to the pest control industry, especially rainfall and temperature, we’ve put together the following regional predictions compiled from the 1999 Old Farmer’s Almanac. And as with most weather predictions, we recommend taking them with a grain of salt.
New England
Winter will be near normal in temperature. April and May will be cooler and drier than normal. Rainfall during the summer season will be a little below normal.
Greater New York and New Jersey
Temperatures this winter will be colder than normal, with above-normal snowfall. April and May will be drier than normal. Hot spells are likely in June, early July and mid-August.
Middle Atlantic Coast
Overall, snowfall and temperature will be below normal throughout the winter season. April and May will be cooler than normal, with near-normal rainfall. Rainfall will be a bit below normal in September. Watch for heavy rain at the start and end of October.
Southeast Coast
February will bring well above-normal rainfall and temperatures, then March will return to cool and dry weather. April will be cool, with near-normal rainfall. May will be much warmer. The hottest temperatures will occur in mid-August, relieved by severe thunderstorms.
Florida
March will be cooler than normal. Despite heavy rains in mid- and late April and mid-May, spring precipitation will be below normal. Rainfall will pick up in July, especially in the north, but August will be much drier than normal, with local drought developing. September and October will bring near-normal temperatures, with well above-normal rainfall in October.
Upstate New York
Spring will be chilly with precipitation being near normal in the west and relatively dry in the east. June through August will be slightly cooler and drier than normal. July will be the rainiest month. September will be wetter than normal, with frequent heavy rain. October will start mild but turn much colder.
Greater Ohio Valley
A reverse in the weather pattern will cause above-normal temperatures and precipitation from mid-January into March. May will be cooler and wetter than normal. Rainfall will be near normal, with heavy rain in August. September will start warm, then turn cool. October, overall, will be much milder than normal.
Deep South
Rainfall through January will be well below normal. February will be very wet while March will be near normal. April will be cool and May will be warm. June will be cool and wet. July and August will get progressively hotter and drier. Below-normal rainfall will continue in September and October.
Chicago and Southern Great Lakes
January and February will be milder than normal. Despite several rainy periods, April will be drier than normal overall. June and July will be relatively warm and dry. September and October will be much drier than normal, with drought a concern. Both months, but particularly October, will be warm.
Northern Great Plains and Great Lakes
Temperatures this winter will average 5 to 6 degrees colder than normal. Cold weather will continue in April and May. July will start with record heat and August will be much rainier than normal, with flooding possible.
Central Great Plains
The best chance for a big snowstorm is in early February. April and May will be cool and dry and June will be dramatically warmer. Rainfall will still be below normal, though frequent thunderstorms are likely. Rainfall will be limited to early September and late October in many places.
Texas and Oklahoma
Temperatures through March will be a bit colder than normal with below-normal precipitation. April will be relatively cool and wet, especially in the south. Though June will start off wet, June through August will be drier than normal. The worst of the heat will occur in early and mid-August, when several record highs may be shattered.
Rocky Mountains
March will have above-normal precipitation and snowfall. April and early May will be snowier than usual. June through August will be 2 to 3 degrees cooler than normal, with below-normal rainfall. Hottest temperatures will be in mid- and late July and mid-August.
Southwest Desert
February will bring a noticeable change, with numerous showers and cool temperatures. May will be sunny and warm with the most widespread thunderstorms in mid-July and early August. September and October will be 3 to 4 degrees hotter than normal, with well below normal rainfall.
Pacific Northwest
Rainfall in February and March will be close to normal. April and May will turn warmer and drier. Hot weather will occur in mid- to late May. June through August will be cooler and rainier than normal, mainly because of a cool and damp June. October will be damp, with cooler temperatures by month’s end.
California
February and March will have below-normal rainfall and temperatures. April and May will be relatively cool and damp. Temperatures from June through August will average near normal. Precipitation will be about average for the season. September and October will be drier than normal.
Explore the January 1999 Issue
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